What to watch out for in Welsh politics in 2025

The past 12 months have been a year almost without parallel in Welsh politics.

There has been in-fighting in both the Labour and Conservative groups in the Senedd, with three Labour first ministers and two Welsh Tory Senedd leaders.

There were farmers' protests, a Tory wipe-out at the general election, Plaid Cymru and Reform surging in the polls, the success of the Welsh government's budget potentially hinging on the agreement of one Liberal Democrat - and the 2026 Senedd election looming ever closer.

So what's to come? Well, here are five things to look out for after Christmas and into 2025, but if the past 12 months is anything to go by, leave a little room for something to catch you unawares and steal the headlines instead.

Bringing down NHS waiting lists is the first minister's number one priority.

The NHS was given more than £600m of additional funding in the recent draft budget. For much of 2024 the lists have been going in the wrong direction.

First Minister Eluned Morgan now has a target of bringing the longest waits down to 8,000 by April.

The NHS always ranks highly for voters and is usually very much Labour territory. But if waits remain stubborn and voters reflect on Labour's 26 years in power - as of next year - might their NHS record count against them as the next Senedd election looms in 2026?

Morgan has said her watchword is "delivery". She will need to deliver.

The Welsh Labour government needs to pass its budget in March. It is looking for help, as it does not have a majority in the Senedd.

Finance Minister Mark Drakeford has already suggested there could be more money for Welsh councils at the lower end of funding increases announced in December.

Will that be enough to tempt arguably the most straightforward option on board –the sole Liberal Democrat Member of the Senedd (MS) Jane Dodds?

She has said that the budget does not do enough to address the "crisis" in social care and that she would like more money for childcare.

Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Conservatives do not look like being part of any deal.

For the past couple of years transport in Wales has been dominated by the 20mph speed limit – arguably the most controversial policy ever introduced by the Welsh government – and trains.

Large chunks of public money were diverted from elsewhere last year to keep Transport for Wales (TfW) on track.

Early in 2025 the focus will shift to buses, which carry three-quarters of all Welsh public transport journeys.

Waiting for the Bus Bill has been a bit like waiting for, errr... a bus. It's been a while, with these plans having first been published in 2022.

The Welsh government wants to bring in a system of franchising which it says would improve services. Ministers, TfW and councils would decide on services, fares, routes and timetables and invite bids to run them .

Conservatives have expressed reservations about TfW's involvement and are against the plans.

There'll be a bit more of a wait too. Rollout will start in south west Wales, but not until 2027.

Transport Secretary Ken Skates is a big bus fan: he revealed in the Senedd in December that he makes them out of Lego.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves will publish a review into UK government spending in late spring, which will set the boundaries for day-to-day public spending for the next three years, and big projects for five years.

It will affect direct UK government spending in Wales and the amount of money available to the Welsh government.

We might get a decision on what has become a totemic issue as much as a financial one: Wales' share of HS2 high speed rail.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer – on a recent visit to Airbus in Broughton – confirmed its designation as an England and Wales project, which means the Welsh government gets no consequential funding.

There is cross-party Senedd support for Wales to get its share.

Plaid Cymru has suggested that HS2 funding for Wales would have to form part of any offer from the Welsh government on a budget deal.

The FM says Sir Keir is "sick" of her asking for HS2 cash.

If there is no consequential funding, what other rail investment might come for Wales instead?

And will it be enough to satisfy both demand and the critics? Plaid Cymru are looking for billions for HS2 – figures previously used by Labour – while Welsh ministers say the amount is around £350m, to reflect the high speed rail built so far.

Plaid Cymru has momentum, ending 2024 top of some Senedd polling.

Reform UK also has it, coming second in 13 of Wales' 32 Westminster seats at the general election with just under 17% of the vote share.

That bodes well for the Senedd's system of proportional representation in 2026, and polling reflects that.

Reform might also appoint a Welsh leader, although judging by the reception he got at their Welsh conference in Newport in November, Nigel Farage is still the big draw.

Can both parties keep it going, and can Labour and the Conservatives rediscover momentum?

New Tory Senedd leader Darren Millar is keen to present a positive vision of the Conservatives as a viable alternative government, after a 2024 beset by disquiet over the direction and approach of former leader Andrew RT Davies.

Welsh Labour will be very happy to leave an extremely difficult year – general election aside – behind.

Nothing will focus minds like an election.

The next Senedd election is not until 2026, but 2025 is going to be when the political parties really start making their pitch to you.