Why does Wales not receive money from HS2?

David Deans
Political reporter, BBC Wales News
HS2 An artists impression of a train running on the High Speed Two railway line. The trains is blue and white and is moving quickly, with overhead electric wires above.HS2
Welsh politicians have complained for years about the lack of money for Wales from the High Speed Rail 2 project

None of the track planned for the High Speed 2 (HS2) railway project will reach Wales, yet the railway project has been a bone of contention in the country's politics for years.

Because of the way Wales is funded none of billions to be spent on the scheme will result in extra cash for Welsh projects - despite doing so for Scotland and Northern Ireland.

As the cost of the scheme grew, politicians across the political spectrum became increasingly concerned that infrastructure projects here were losing out.

Much of the reason why lies in the specific way Wales is funded - but the argument is over whether that is right.

Devolution is the process that saw the Welsh government, and the Senedd in Cardiff Bay, gradually take control over vast slabs of policy in Wales.

It developed in a similar way in Scotland and Northern Ireland, but with the areas that Welsh politicians have control over being different, sometimes in significant ways.

One such area is rail infrastructure. Unlike in the other two countries, most of Wales' railway is funded by the UK government, and not the ministers in Cardiff.

Under the system used to fund the devolved nations, called the Barnett Formula, Scotland and Northern Ireland get extra money when more cash is spent on rail in England and Wales.

Something similar happens for Wales when more money is spent in the health service or in education. But it does not usually with rail, and especially not for HS2.

The previous Conservative UK government justified the classification for HS2 by arguing it would benefit north Wales via a link to Crewe.

But questions were raised about that defence after the link north of Birmingham was scrapped by Rishi Sunak.

Those who are opposed to the arrangement argue that it is wrong that Wales sees no direct monetary benefit from a scheme that does not physically touch the country.

Some will say that Wales' rail infrastructure has also been historically underfunded compared to the network in England.

How much is it worth?

Various estimates exist on how much HS2 could have generated for the Welsh government.

Around the top end is the figure given by Plaid Cymru of £3.9bn.

The Senedd's research team says that this appears to be based on estimates of a total cost of £66bn.

An even larger sum - £4.6bn - was quoted by now Welsh secretary Jo Stevens when she was an opposition MP. That was before the Birmingham to Manchester leg was scrapped.

The Welsh government quotes figures which reflect how much has been spent to date.

Labour Finance Secretary Mark Drakeford uses the figure of £431m, based on how much would have come to Wales had Barnett applied between 2015 and 2026.

What has happened with Labour in power in Westminster?

First Minister Eluned Morgan faces regular questions from counterparts in Plaid Cymru about what the Welsh government is doing on the issue, now Labour is in charge down the road in London.

Welsh Conservatives in the Senedd are also banging the drum for HS2 money.

The Welsh government would say it has raised the matter internally and has encouraged the UK government to admit that, in the past, rail infrastructure was underfunded in Wales.

What has happened is a change to the policy on HS2. There is talk instead of money for individual rail projects, such as stations along the south Wales mainline and improving connectivity between north Wales and Liverpool.

Ministers will have to wait for the spending review to see if those come through.